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Results Assessment & Stake Advice

It's been an interesting start for Portfolio Bet, with my own betting account reaching a maximum of +55.25 points profit using MTP, a maximum drawdown to date at circa -26 points, and with my current profit residing at +30.2 points.


We have been betting for approximately two and a half months, so +30.2 points profit okay, and any loss has been absorbed from my profit instead of my initial investment, so that is of course even better.


However, there are factors I will cover below that have affected the performance recently.


I want everyone set up correctly, and to understand how betting using automations works, because we will begin to move to much higher profitability points over the coming months, and being set up right will ensure you understand how the results can move over time.


This is vital to maintain a successful betting account, and be in the right position to benefit when the balance starts swelling past its previous highest maximum sum amount, which for me was a +55.25 points max sum.


I've seen the balance go up and down, and back up again a few times since we began live betting on the 13th April, but leading up to Royal Ascot, across the week of this meeting, and the week after, we encountered our highest drawdown phase during live betting.


Major events like this are hit and miss when it comes to automation, for the reason we have regular bread and butter race meetings still in operation across the country, but most of the money, attention, high class jockeys, and trainer resources each day are focused on the big meeting.


This can have a dilution effect on the remaining races, and of course due to the massive increase in quality at the major event, this makes things more unpredictable than usual.


Which of course is all part of racing, and the stats with results we have to date also cover these big events each year, showing a very healthy profit over the longer term.


However, the impact must be acknowledged, and it can either go one way or another across the bet schedule with these big meetings. In the lead up to them, during, and the immediate aftermath as racing returns to normal.


It's something to be aware of from my own experience creating automated betting strategies.


An automated betting system does not have an opinion on whether a horse race is a big event, or whether it's a Class 6 at Bangor.


If we look at the result spreadsheet that is available to download here: https://www.portfoliobet.co.uk/results


One of the first things I look for personally when assessing a strategy is acceptable drawdown, because this will dictate the amount of risk I am likely to have, and how much money I should be able to comfortably invest.


If I look at Portfolio Bet and the results published from the start, I can see over this period there have been 15 moments where the drawdown has noticeably peaked to -20 points.


One specifically that reached -43.09, if opting for MTP in this example.


These are moments where the balance has dropped causing some periods of loss, which can then be recovered with further betting to push the profitability in the right upward direction.


There are a lot more moments where the drawdown reached -15, or -10 across the timeline, but the single highest spike is as mentioned -43.09.


If I am looking at creating a new system, or investing in anything at all really, I need to know the peaks and troughs, and so should you too. 


I will look at the points profit the system delivers in relation to the drawdown, and then factor in how I can make this a comfortable hands off betting experience, by putting in the right initial start up.


Looking at these winning and losing periods, along with the overall balance growth over time, immediately paints a clear picture that I can expect winning and losing periods in the short term, and like any investment, the price and value will naturally go up and down, but the overall investment value I want to go up at a consistent and predictable rate over the long term.


The short periods of assessment, like the weeks and months I’m looking at above with Royal Ascot, we can see there is a pattern there, as we can see over the quarters, six monthly, and yearly betting timelines.


Having the right amount in the betting bank to absorb losses with minimal concern, that is vital for long term success, because if you're going to be stressed out by a natural run of betting when the system drops points, it will lead to bad decision making.


Likewise, if your mindset is not correct from the start, you could be looking to increase your investment and point value per bet after a winning run, which could then seriously compromise you at the next period of betting that drops points.


Your biggest win could be your biggest loss coming off the back of a highly profitable period, increasing staking to unrealistic levels, only to hit a drop in form.


This is why I preach with Portfolio Bet's set up to be sensible and advise a 200 point bet bank to cover you for the year.  


Whatever you decide to do around this advice is of course your decision, but I manage my money with this automated betting system annually.


As already covered, recorded drawdown from 2020 when the results are published show -43.09 points maximum, so a 200 point bank in my mind gives a very comfortable level of startup points as a buffer. A buffer that is highly unlikely going to be needed.


Which begs the question, why have it there in the first place, and why not bet with a 100-point bank, or even 50.


Well, you could, but this comes down to your risk aversion levels, because if you are comfortable to bet up to your maximum investment, which it has shown could happen hypothetically if your investment was 50 points, and we hit -43 drawdown.


Had you just commenced betting at the start of that -43 drop, you would need to be able to weather the poor form, and be confident you would either come out the other side, recouping the loss to a new profit high, or be comfortable losing that 50 point investment.


Possibly, even going beyond it with re investment to keep on going, never chasing losses of course, and then build from there. 


Which the results show if that scenario had played out, you would be nicely in profit, but it’s a rare person with that mindset who would do that, and one of the reasons I recommend 200 points to help you avoid such a scenario.  


However, the advantage of using a smaller invested start up bank could be your initial stake / point value can be higher, which I completely understand you may not want a reserve of money sat doing nothing for potentially forever, while your balance steadily grows over time, why not invest all of it.


Well, if you do, and say the balance does hit a drawdown period that takes you into the uncomfortable territory of coming close to your initial startup investment amount, due to your higher stake size. Would you then quit and call it a day, potentially missing the winning bets that follow, or are you set up to accept this, and as mentioned above re invest to and keep going until the winning periods return, and your losses are recovered with a profit gained.


I hope now you're seeing why I recommend such a large initial points investment, for a service that has to date only recorded a max drawdown of -43 points, and mainly has -25 drawdown spikes as the rolling average.


To keep it all as hands off and stress free as possible. You don't want to be put in a situation ideally where you're having to think about quitting or re investing due to breaking your bank.


You could instead have an amount that is set up from the start to weather any downturn, and recover naturally on its own over time, making it easier to continue to perform as projected while it rebuilds your bank to a new profit high.


Factoring in the drawdown within a sensible start up balance, that is the right way in my opinion.


This is why I spend a lot of time looking at the worst possible outcomes with automated betting, and any betting investment I may be considering, because I want to know I am set up correctly to succeed over the time I have in my mind I'll be investing.


My mantra is, if I'm lying on the train tracks, I want to know what time the train is due to arrive.


This has served me well over the years, and it may seem negative to some people, but preparation for me is vital, and it's something you will read in these blog posts a lot. As I want to drum it into everyone, so we can all enjoy years of success together.


The same betting system that made us the great profit to begin with, and recorded the points shown in the published results, is the same system that has selected the losing bets and recorded the highest drawdown. 


Remove the emotion behind the winning and losing periods, set up to succeed, and you have the best chance to achieve yearly target averages.


I’ll leave this information with you, and please feel free to contact me if you have any questions. 


I’m working on some new product concepts for another website called Hedger Pro at the moment, with their new system builder, and helping push the software to its limits in order to make relevant changes that improve the user experience.


It’s a fabulous piece of kit, and I will work on some systems to include within it that do not conflict with Portfolio Bet.  To pass these on to you at some point soon, so I will keep you informed.


These blogs will likely be monthly, as I only like to write when I have something worthwhile to relay to you. As I value your time, and it means I can dedicate my own time to development projects.


I hope today’s blog post has been helpful.


Best Regards

Ryan


 

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We all need to acknowledge its "the long game" keep up the great work Cheers AL

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