In today's news update I will explain the latest update applied to Portfolio Bet, with a look at the performance I have achieved to demonstrate projected profit.
This will show recent and historical betting figures, and an example of the same filters in operation from when we began live betting on the 13th April, ie using the new selection criteria. This is quite revealing.
I will also go over the individual strategies, an overview of how they function, and how they combine each day.
If I've missed anything here, or if you have any further questions, please drop me an email to hello@portfoliobet.co.uk and I will come back to you as soon as possible.
In the next news update I will cover the overall results across a broader timeline for each strategy included, with the days of the week profit and loss to give you an insight into daily expected performance levels.
Before I get to exploring the new selection filter settings with you, here is a brief news round up to bring everyone up to date.
Portfolio Bet took a break from betting on the 26th August, and restarted on the 16th September using upgraded selection filters.
Since the update was applied we've had 26 bets, 10 losses, 16 wins. That is 17 back bets, and 9 lay bets in total across 9 betting days.
My personal total profit betting using Exchange Straight (MTP) is at +19.8 points since the restart on the 16th.
For members betting using Betfair Starting Price (BSP), this would be slightly less with +15.34 points profit.
You can bet a lot more with BSP compared to MTP, and the odds reported on Timeform, Betfair, and at Portfolio Bet for BSP will match yours exactly. There will always be some difference in odds and profit when MTP betting, as we all know.
I was already up +20.55 points prior to the updated settings from the 13th April, so my total MTP betting balance for Portfolio Bet is +40.35 points. At the time of posting this blog pre racing on the 25th September.
I bet with £100 stake per bet (which is the maximum I'd recommend for MTP, higher go to BSP), this means from April 13th my balance is now at +4035.00 profit.
Which in my opinion is good for a hands off betting investment, so far, but it can be a lot better as shown below.
When I look at the returns using the new filters from the 13th April to the 15th September, and then also factor in the profit that's been made since then live betting for members, that is far more in line with the balance growth I expect on average across a five month timeline with Portfolio Bet. In order to reach a target profit per annum circa +300 points.
Results below show MTP & BSP betting with the new settings from the 13/4/24 to the 15/9/24
MTP
BSP
Obviously the financial returns on +167.02 MTP points, or +108.36 points for BSP, would be a lot more than +40.35 points shown above betting MTP.
I'd be somewhere around £16,702 in profit, compared to my current £4035 in profit.
Which I think gives the best visual explanation possible for the reason I spent nearly a month with the service offline updating the selection parameters.
I want Portfolio Bet to be achieving a lot more on average across a year than it was previously showing.
The filters that operate each day for Portfolio Bet now consist of the following types of bet listed below.
We have six individual betting strategies in operation across varies days of the week, that have been programmed in to the software to try and return the highest financial levels, with a more consistent betting pattern running at a lower drawdown level.
Each set of filters has been programmed with layers of criteria that must be reached before a bet is placed, with the selection process made for all options at one minute to post.
This means the BSP bets have been decided at one minute to post. The odds range however may dictate whether these still qualify come race time, but as you can see from the results above with the same total bets recorded, that is a rare event these factors will play a part.
Additionally, the individual betting strategies that operate over the week are set not to collide with each other, as in, place a lay and back bet on the same horses.
Monday
Favourite backing one applicable horse per race.
Lay betting between two to three horses per race.
Lay betting between two to three horses per race, different class.
Outsider backing strategy at higher odds, looking at horses outside of the top five ranked, two horses required that qualify. Strict criteria.
Tuesday
Lay betting between two to three horses per race.
Lay betting between one to three horses per race, different class.
Outsider backing strategy at higher odds, looking at horses outside of the top five ranked, one to three horses required that qualify. Strict criteria.
Wednesday
Favourite backing one applicable horse per race.
Higher odds backing strategy, only runs on Wednesday's, and looks for between two to three horses per applicable race.
Lay betting one horses per race.
Thursday
Outsider backing strategy targetting one class within a tight range of proven successful parameters, with between one to three horses per race required.
Friday
Lay betting between two to three horses per race.
Lay betting between one to two horses per race, different class.
Saturday
Favourite backing one applicable horse per race.
Lay betting two horses required per race.
Lay betting one horses per race, different class.
Outsider backing strategy targetting one class within a tight range of proven parameters, with between one to two horses per race required. Strict criteria.
Sunday
Outsider backing strategy targetting one class within a tight range of proven parameters, with onehorse per race required. Strict criteria.
Favourite backing one applicable horse per race.
Lay betting between two to three horses per race.
The settings above operate concurrently across each week, and of course depending on the type of racing, and available applicable criteria being met, this will determine the numbers and success of each individual betting strategy. Which then dictates the combined total output for Portfolio Bet.
The results shown above across the five month period give a good account of a typical betting flow, with an example of bet volume, and also expected drawdown levels the balance can drop down to before recouping, and pushing back up.
These winning and losing periods all need to be factored in when calculating your stake levels, to ensure you are using a comfortable amount per bet.
The drawdown periods and the periods of high growth can come in any order, so please bear that in mind.
The graphs give a good example of how things can be running at a very high level, and also how things can be more complicated and drop off, or have periods of winning and losing with no growth for prolonged weeks or months.
Let's take a wider view of the betting using these filters for the past twelve months.
The example betting below covers MTP and BSP betting for Portfolio Bet using the latest upgraded selection filters, across the date range 14/9/23 to 15/9/24.
MTP
BSP
You can see above there is a very similar line with the profit and loss, and also drawdown over the betting period above, for both BSP and MTP betting.
The drawdown levels are closely matched, but with the profit for MTP being obviously higher at +430.11 compared to +318.18 for BSP, but the with caveat for MTP betting you can only really go up to £100 stake per bet, and of course there will be variance on what everyone achieves.
Whereas with BSP betting you will return the same as reported across all reporting channels, Betfair, Timeform, and Portfolio Bet, and be guranteed to be matched up to the maximum stake level allowed for each bet, which is up into the hundreds somewhere. If opting for the maximum allowed via Portfolio Bet at £250 you should never have an issue being matched at BSP.
As mentioned above I will add another news blog very soon with some extra details covering the new settings, but I think this is enough for one news update today.
One thing I need to mention is, the drawdown overall should now be lower than the previous filters.
A lot of my rationale for changing the settings was to remove what I would call unnecessary risk bets. Which you may ask why were they there to begin, to which I would reply, overall across a longer timeline of bets they show such a profit to make them worthwhile including, plus they can be exciting giving the balance a huge spike in growth across winning periods.
However, from a membership perspective at this moment in time with the service still in its first year, approaching this type of capitalization of value bets at higher odds could be done within a much more controlled set of filters. Also, as much as they do provide exciting spikes during winning periods, across losing phases they can add some frustration when not winning.
It will mean less of those wow moments across a betting week when the huge odds win bets land, but more consistency and logic within the betting patterns overal.
There will still be big priced winners as we witnessed last week, with a horse winning at around odds of 7.0.
With that said, we still have six days a week with strategies in operation that work at the higher end of the betting market within a race.
They are more controlled and do run alongside the other strategies that work on the same days a lot more considerately, but they are there, and if any bets apply they will be placed.
You can however see from the results shown above across the past year, that even with these higher odds strategies in place working with the other strategies that would primarily work within more normal boundaries.
For example, backing horses that look like they should win, and laying horses that overall the stats show should lose enough to profit, compared to backing horses to win at the outer range of rank and odds, but selected due to having qualities that show consistent profits, this approach does show a steady profit with a more than acceptable drawdown circa -20 points levels.
Okay, that's it from me for now, I hope this information has been useful.
If you do want to join Portfolio Bet it is invitation only, but you can register your interest to join at https://www.portfoliobet.co.uk/
As soon as places become available I will email you with sign up instructions, and you can choose either a quarterly or annual subscription.
There are just a handful of spaces available, and these will be emailed to the current waiting list over the course of today.
Memberships are limited to maintain the integrity and effectiveness of the service, allowing for available money in the betting markets.
All bets are win market based within UK horse racing, which has the most active available liquidity, and as shown above BSP betting is a very effective method allowing for larger stakes, and guaranteed bets placed at reported odds.
Thank you for spending your time reading today.
Ryan Phillips
#betting #bet #horseracing #horsebet #betbot #automatedbetting #bettingsoftware #laying #lay #laybet #backtowin #investing #investor #investment #learntobet #portfolio #portfolioinvestment #liquidity #betfair #exchange #makemoneyonline
Comments