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Portfolio Bet Strategies Part 1

Updated: May 7

New memberships are closed for Portfolio Bet, but you can still register for an invitation to join when they re open in a couple of weeks time.



Today's blog update is all information based, and quite a lengthy one, so if you want to find out more about each strategy included in Portfolio Bet, or more on what's coming up, grab your favorite drink and settle in for a read.


The brief overview of the included strategies is near the base of the blog post if you want to skip ahead.


Before I get to the nitty gritty of today's update, you should know that each month I will publish the betting results.


I do this for Exponential Bet, and will do the same for Portfolio Bet with a detailed overview. Which I will also add to the Exponential Bet results later in the week after the update.


The next result update is scheduled for the first Monday of the month, which falls on the 6th May.


Obviously Portfolio Bet is only just out of its first week of betting, so I've had to track bets matched for members.


This is to ensure liquidity needs are being met, but also the software is placing the correct bets, and at the right time. Which it has been on both counts.


When I am past this phase I will rarely check Portfolio Bet results during a month, unless I'm asked to by a member to check something against their own results, or if I think their is a software update required.


Not because I don't care, quite the contrary, it's because I am set up for the long term.


I expect to see both winning and losing days, and weeks each month. Which is why I don't spend each day if using automation tracking every single race and result.


I completely understand as a new member you are inclined to want to login and check your results each day, or in some cases leave the software open, and watch every nail biting bet run within the Betfair live video stream, and in some ways that can be part of the excitement of it.


This is not how I view it though, as it's an investment for me, and viewing it as a daily exciter to my race card is not what its designed to be.


I'm also explaining this to you, because I understand some service providers you may be used to would be emailing each day, or discussing the latest information on race day, but to me everything is data and filters, and just numbers basically.


I enjoy a day out at the races like everyone else (if you're offering, wink wink), but if I'm working in my office it will be on something work focused, not sitting watching every race for every service I provide. I'd get nothing done.


Also, as mentioned it's really not meant to be viewed as a daily watch along service. It can be, but just so you know it's not what it was created for.


I created the automation for Portfolio Bet, and spent months already live bet testing and data sourcing, I am already 100% bought in and confident in it's long term profitability performance.


I personally have no doubt we are going to have huge surges of profit that push the balance higher, but also go through boring or frustrating periods of no profit or loss to get there.


Some months will be epic, while others a complete chew, as Nigel calls it.

That is the nature of it. It's also why I put my time into other more productive things, that can either further improve the service, or to provide useful information for you.


I am however (to contradict my last statement) looking at something I can do with the automated bets in a more live reactive way, which will require me looking at each daily bet live, but that is linked in to recording content for you, to make more money while using Portfolio Bet should you have the time during a race day. You will be able to get more out of your membership, so stay tuned for this.

It is also something I could automated, so if you haven't got the time due to work commitments, you won't be missing out. This is one for the the coming couple of months.


Anyway, I digress, which I may do a few times during this post today.

I'm enjoying the nice weather for a change in the UK, as its been rain rain rain for months.


I'm working with the office doors open into the garden, while trying to give you information you may find interesting.


Getting back to my original point though, the result updates are when I really look at how we've done over the monthly live betting period, and where we are on the timeline in regard to reaching our annual points target.


I will provide a detailed overview, whether brief or extensive, the month will be covered to explore each strategies performance, and the combined effort.


I can pull previous similar examples of such betting periods to put side by side, and share my thoughts on how I expect the betting to run based on schedules, or any new product developments with the software or selection criteria to improve performance.


You won't get daily or weekly assessments from me on the betting, as stated, it's just not set up for daily or weekly targets, it's too small a timeframe to consider.


It's the bigger prize I'm solely interested in for every member to be hitting annual targets, just solid annual financial gains.


I want everyone to stay engaged with Portfolio Bet for years to come, be set up correctly, and have the right investor mindset, so we can all make a lot of money with our limited membership levels.


This is not a service I will ever just let go with unlimited membership levels, as it would ruin it.


It's the sort of thing that would be too popular very quickly, and unlike the Exponential Bet services that I can manage within their means very easily using stake and sign up limits, Portfolio Bet could be easily swamped if I hadn't set a membership cap early on.


As well as looking overall where we are on the target timeline for Portfolio Bet, when I update the monthly results, I will also look at both BSP betting, which will line up to what each member using this option has in their Bets Placed within Cloud Bet Bot's Portfolio Bet dashboard.


Also looking at the Exchange Straight results in detail, which will of course carry some variance from what is shown, and what each and every member achieves.


Luckily as we're only betting win market for Portfolio Bet, and not place betting, the variance levels as I am seeing them already, the spread is not too wide.


As mentioned I have closed further memberships while I assess this further, and we have stopped at approx. 33% capacity.


This is giving me the breathing space required and helping me assess the bet data each day. Every signal from what I've seen so far shows we can go up to 50% expected capacity and re open for new members to get there over the next week or two.


I've personally had no matching issues, and from what I can see for everyone in the result history, it all looks pretty solid.


I'll stop again at 50% membership capacity for another assessment period, and that may be the new maximum to allow enough comfortable headroom for every single member, but at the moment I'm pleased with what I have seen with the liquidity and bet matching.

If you're unfamiliar with liquidity or betting on the exchange, I'd advise watching races approx. ten minutes before they go in play, and enable the money in the market on Betfair so you can see the sums increase on the back and lay side.

Particularly in low market and major events, so you can see the difference. It's very interesting. For me I have to strike a balance, so every with Portfolio Bet member there is most of the time enough money to get everyone matched.


Hence why I am treading carefully with membership volumes, and keeping a close look at this.


I'll aim to have part two of this blog series published after the 6th with a full analysis of the statistics included within the result update.


This will give a deeper understanding of the inner workings of each strategy for Portfolio Bet, and help anticipate the sort of betting activity expected over a week, month, and year.


Additionally, it will help to understand the limits for each strategy, such as any class restrictions or odds limitations.


Which is useful when deciding to bet either BSP using the fixed liability option for laying, or Exchange Straight, which is all fixed stake betting carrying higher liability.


In today's blog post I'm sharing what makes the strategies included within Portfolio Bet, along with some future planning we're working on, but in general an overview of the core set up features for each of the four strategies in operation.


This is part one of a three part update, which will expand further to breakdown the projected average performance over a week, month, and year for each of the strategies. Showing how they do individually and combined.


I will also include an insight in to how I create the strategies using the bespoke tools designed by myself and Nigel.


In addition to this, I will look to add statistics such as bet volumes, winning and losing day numbers, strike rate, return on investment, and average odds, as well as the already included total points and drawdown to the results published in the excel sheet.


Today's update is more conversational and off the cuff, discussing more of what is included from my side as the strategy creator.


There is an explanation of what the four strategies are, and what they are designed to do.


The current spreadsheet is provided within my 9th April blog post, which you can catch up on here: https://www.exponentialbet.co.uk/post/portfolio-bet-results-update-9th-april


The working titles for each of the strategies are, LAYFPB1, PWMPB, SFHPB, AND PBMV2.


Not the most awe inspiring titles you will every read, but they aren't meant to be, as they are each individually ingredients that combine to make Portfolio Bet.


Each of the strategies are designed to work together over time to make a good amount of profit.


Individually they perform very well, but together they lock and compliment each other, rarely conflict, and give support during the winning and losing periods.


Here is a broad overview of the core filters in operation for each strategy, which by update three you will have a more in depth view of each.


The first thing you need to know is, that each of the strategies look at the Betfair market at one minute to post, which is the time the software decides that if according to the programmed filters should there be any qualifying bets for any of the strategies.


If betting exchange straight, you will see you bets fired to market at around one minute to post.


If there are bets that qualify, these will then be triggered by each members Betfair account, and bets placed according to the saved stakes set within the software.


They are not placed within Cloud Bet Bot, they are placed by each members Betfair account, which is linked to the software, and allows it to communicate with Betfair to trigger an automated bet.


Each strategy has race class filters that it adheres to. These vary each day depending on the type of racing the strategy is looking at for qualifying bets.


The class filters have been assessed across a broad sheet of race data, and will be biased toward specific days bet activity that carry more options, or for example a higher strike rate of winning bets, which if targeting a specific race class for the bet type the automation flags as a potential profitable bet.


What you should know is that each strategy works within a set of core selection ranges, and these are set in stone.


As an example, a strategy will either be laying one single bet, or multiple bets within a qualifying race, or vice versa backing a single horse or backing multiple horses at enough value odds to make it worthwhile if we find the winner.


They will either be aiming at lower odds ranges, or for the multiple bet strategies looking for higher ranges in some instances.


The number of horses backed or layed for each strategy remains the same for each selected day of the week.


In addition to this, the core range of betting odds will be the same for each strategy, which is key to keep the consistency over time.


Each day the general dynamics of racing shifts, because as we know some days are more active than others across a week, allowing for major race events of course.


The class filters for each strategy are determined by the average highest possible performing daily set up to generate the most profit across a year of betting.


As something to think about for the future, we are working on an AI generated process that switches these class filters, and some of the others that determined how a strategy should operate each day, apart from the core functions.


The things instead that would benefit from a daily automated scan of the racing based of previous experience, such as race class for example.


For now, the class and other filters in use as the results show, which do more than enough to overall push the balance forward.

Allowing for losing periods, and times when possibly AI could have predicted a switch due to an increase in market liquidity, or adapting to specific jockey or trainer performance change on the day of the racing, track rules, and many other conditions or factors affecting the daily racing.


AI sophistication could really be a daily race monitor making fine tuning adjustments, but I am digressing possibly due to the blasts of sunshine beaming into my office, and my desire to hand over the automated running to a superior being such as AI at some point in the near future, so I can spend my days in the sun.


In fact, that is the goal of the website, to help you get closer to spending your days in the sun, or wherever sparks your interest should you have the extra money to help you get there.


This will take some time to introduce AI, at least twelve months to generate enough live bet data and test such a robot.

It is however an intriguing way to move the initial filters forward to create a lot more profit, by doing something a human being could not get near to completing every single day of racing. We are forward planning this move for Portfolio Bet, Exponential Bet services, and other projects we have in the pipeline. I know Nigel is looking at this with great interest.

The way Portfolio Bet is now set up, it is designed to absorb losing periods within its advised start up investment, and make enough profit during the winning periods to recover losses, and push the balance successfully toward the projected target profit of +300 points per annum.


This will involve some very impressive periods of high growth, but also as mentioned above, some frustrating periods of profit and loss that dip the balance, or return it to a previous level.


That is both long term betting and long term investing, which is why a long term mindset is required to any automated strategy set up like this.


Now, to wrap up this much longer than expected update, which I can assure you update part 2 will be more data based with examples and less of my ramblings.


Here is a basic overview of what each Portfolio Bet strategy does.


LAYFPB1, this is a lay betting strategy that aims at the second favorite.


The odds range is between 1.5 to 6 at time of selection, and has no jockey filters based on number in the top end of the field.


It does have jockey ratings embedded within it, which is the latest updated jockey range.


With a race runner number range set to control the field size, and which adjusts for each day of the week.


In addition to this, it has a broad stop up and stop down function, that over the long term has shown to enhance profits while limiting drawdown.


PBMPBV2, is a backing strategy that aims at the horses outside the top two, and up to the seventh ranked at one minute to post by order of odds. As with all the strategies the class filters are applied each day.


There is no jockey by order control, but it does operate with jockey rating embedded that use the latest data update.


The odds range comes in for backing between odds of 2 to 12, with a minimum bet range between 1 to 3 per race. Typically two or more.


The selections themselves are made from the place market filters, but placed as bets as with all Portfolio Bets, within the win market.


There is a stop up and stop down to control the number of wins and losses across a days betting, which over a longer period of assessment helps increase profit while minimizing drawdown.


SFHPB, This is a backing strategy aimed at the favorite. With an odds range between 1.5 to 8, and like the other Portfolio Bet strategies comes with class limitations each day.


It does have jockey ratings built in that it utilizes, as well as a runner range, and a stop up and down feature to enhance overall performance.


It's a very straightforward back the favorite whenever conditions suits strategy, that over the months and years has shown to work within profitable levels.


PWMPB, This is a lay betting strategy that pulls its selections from the place market, but lays in the win market.


There can be multiple bets placed within each race, up to three or four, within an odds range of 4 to 8 at time of bet placement selection.


Runners and class are also controlled as per the other strategies, and a strict control filter is in place for the jockey ratings, looking for the right number combination of rated jockeys in the top four at time of ranking.


Summary


Just to wrap up, results and performance will be looked at monthly starting on the 6th May, and the next Portfolio Bet update will be published after the results are live next month, with a detailed overview, and to include more detailed statistics for each betting strategy, and all combined.


I'll call it a day for today to catch the last bit of nice weather, and hope you found something useful in today's update.


Thanks for reading.

Ryan



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